特朗普的对华关税得不偿失

WASHINGTON — President Trump on Monday portrayed America as being on the winning end of his trade war, saying tariffs are punishing China’s economy while generating billions of dollars for the United States, an economic victory that will allow him to continue his fight without domestic harm.

WASHINGTON — President Trump on Monday portrayed America as being on the winning end of his trade war, saying tariffs are punishing China’s economy while generating billions of dollars for the United States, an economic victory that will allow him to continue his fight without domestic harm.

华盛顿——特朗普总统于周一表示,美国即将赢得贸易战的胜利,关税正在严重损害中国经济,同时为美国创造了数十亿美元的收入,这一经济胜利将使他能在不损害国内利益的情况下继续把贸易战打下去。

“We’ve taken in tens of billions of dollars in tariffs from China,” Mr. Trump told reporters during a “Made in America” product event at the White House. While China has taken $16 billion “off the table” by stopping its purchases of American agriculture, he said, the United States has “taken in much, much more — many times that in tariffs.”

“我们从中国得到了数百亿美元的关税,”特朗普在白宫举行的“美国制造”产品发布会上对记者说。他说,虽然中国通过停止购买美国农产品,“从谈判桌上”拿走了160亿美元,但美国“从关税中得到的要多得多——是中国拿走的很多倍”。

But government figures show that the revenue the United States has collected from tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods is not enough to cover the cost of the president’s bailout for farmers, let alone compensate the many other industries hurt by trade tensions. The longer Mr. Trump’s dispute with China drags on, the more difficult it could be for him to ignore that gap.

但政府数据显示,美国通过向价值2500亿美元的中国商品征收关税中获得的收入,不足以支付总统对农民的财政援助成本,更不用说补偿因贸易紧张而受到损害的许多其他行业了。特朗普与中国的争端拖得越久,他就越难以忽视这一差额。

Mr. Trump’s tariffs on Chinese imports raised $20.8 billion through Wednesday, according to data from United States Customs and Border Protection. Mr. Trump has already committed to paying American farmers hurt by the trade war $28 billion.

美国海关和边境保护局(Customs and Border Protection)的数据显示,截至周三,特朗普对中国进口商品的征收的关税增加了208亿美元。特朗普已经承诺向受贸易战伤害的美国农民支付280亿美元。

The president has rolled out two rounds of financial support for farmers: a $12 billion package that was announced last July, of which nearly $10 billion has been spent, and an additional $16 billion announced in May.

总统已推出两轮对农民的财政支持:去年7月宣布的120亿美元的一揽子计划,其中近100亿美元已经投入使用;另外,5月又宣布了160亿美元。

The government has provided no such benefit to the myriad other businesses, including plane makers, technology companies and medical device manufacturers, that have lost contracts and revenue as a result of Mr. Trump’s tariffs and China’s retaliation against American goods.

由于特朗普的关税和中国对美国商品的报复,包括飞机制造商、科技公司和医疗设备制造商在内的无数其他企业损失了合同和收入,而政府并没有向它们提供类似的救济。

Trade talks with China have faltered in recent months, and Mr. Trump and his aides appear to be in no hurry to resolve the dispute, projecting confidence that China is suffering more of the harm, if not all of it.

近几个月来,与中国的贸易谈判一直步履蹒跚,特朗普和助手们似乎并不急于解决争端,这表示他们相信,在贸易战中,中国遭受的损害更大,如果不是全部损害的话。

Mr. Trump’s tariffs are undeniably hurting China, where exports power about 20 percent of the economy, compared with 12 percent in the United States. On Monday, the Chinese government said its economy had grown at a 6.2 percent annual rate in the second quarter, the lowest rate in 27 years.

不可否认,特朗普的关税对中国造成了伤害,中国的出口约占经济总量的20%,而美国只有12%。中国政府于周一表示,第二季度经济同比增长6.2%,为27年来的最低水平。

“The United States Tariffs are having a major effect on companies wanting to leave China for non-tariffed countries,” Mr. Trump wrote on Twitter on Monday morning, commenting on the Chinese growth figures. “Thousands of companies are leaving. This is why China wants to make a deal with the U.S., and wishes it had not broken the original deal in the first place.”

“美国的关税对那些希望离开中国、前往不被征收关税国家的公司产生了重大影响,”周一上午,特朗普在Twitter上评论中国的增长数据时写道。“成千上万的公司正在离开。所以中国希望与美国达成协议,并且希望当初没有违反最初的协议。”

There is little sign, though, that China’s loss is America’s gain. Much of the business activity is shifting to other low-cost countries, like Vietnam, with a transition cost attached for American companies that depend on them.

然而,几乎没有迹象表明,中国的损失就是美国的收获。许多商业活动正在转移到越南等其他低成本国家,而依赖这些国家的美国公司则要承担转移成本。

Numerous companies have announced changes in their supply chains or other effects from the tariffs, and more could be revealed as companies report second-quarter earnings in coming weeks. Nintendo has accelerated the shift of its Switch console to Vietnam from China, according to Panjiva, a supply chain research firm, while GoPro, Hasbro and other companies are reworking their supply chains to reduce their exposure to China.

多家企业公布了供应链的变化或关税带来的其他影响,随着这些公司在未来几周公布第二季度业绩,可能还会看到更多变化。供应链研究公司磐聚网(Panjiva)表示,任天堂(Nintendo)加快了将Switch游戏机的生产从中国转移至越南的步伐,而GoPro、孩之宝(Hasbro)等公司正在重组供应链,以减少在中国的业务。

The president and his advisers have argued that now is the time to try to force China to change trading practices that they say have hurt American companies and resulted in the loss of American jobs. The administration argues that the status quo was not without costs to the American economy. An investigation by the administration into Chinese intellectual property theft found that China’s policies had resulted in harm to the American economy of at least $50 billion per year.

总统和他的顾问们认为,是时候迫使中国改变贸易做法了。他们说,这些做法损害了美国公司的利益,导致美国人失去了工作。特朗普政府辩称,维持现状也会给美国经济带来代价。政府对中国知识产权盗窃的一项调查发现,中国的政策对美国经济造成了每年至少500亿美元的损失。

Many trade experts and business leaders support confronting Beijing, and some have said the heavy cost of the trade war will be worth it if the United States can persuade China to open up its economy. But most disagree with the administration’s claim that the trade war is having no negative effect on American businesses.

许多贸易专家和商界领袖支持对抗北京,一些人表示,如果美国能够说服中国开放经济,贸易战的沉重代价将是值得的。但大多数人不同意特朗普政府的说法,即贸易战对美国企业没有负面影响。

“Certainly it is absolute folly to suggest that this is cost free for the U.S.,” said Rufus Yerxa, the president of the National Foreign Trade Council, which represents major American exporters.

“要说这不会让美国付出代价,那当然是绝对愚蠢的,”代表美国主要出口商的全国对外贸易理事会(National Foreign Trade Council)会长鲁弗斯·耶克萨(Rufus Yerxa)说。

Numerous studies have shown that American consumers are bearing much of the cost of the tariffs. Studies from the Tax Foundation in Washington and the Penn Wharton Budget Model at the University of Pennsylvania have shown that the tariffs amount to a significant tax increase on Americans, by raising the prices of goods. The damage is concentrated, as a percentage of income, among the lowest earners, who spend a larger share of their pay on imports than the upper middle class and the rich.

大量研究表明,美国消费者承担了关税的大部分成本。华盛顿的税务基金会(Tax Foundation)和宾夕法尼亚大学(University of Pennsylvania)宾夕法尼亚沃顿商学院预算模型(Penn Wharton Budget Model)的研究表明,关税提高了商品价格,相当于对美国人大幅增税。按照在收入中所占百分比计算,损害主要集中在最低收入者身上,他们在进口商品上的支出占工资的比例高于中产阶级和富人。

The administration has gradually increased the amount of Chinese goods subject to tariffs over the last year, from an initial $34 billion to a total of $250 billion, and ramped up the tariff rate on those goods.

过去一年,政府逐步增加了对中国商品征收关税的范围,从最初的价值340亿美元产品增加到价值2500亿美元的产品,并且提高了这些商品的关税。

But the monthly pace of revenue collection from tariffs has not increased this year. That’s because America is importing fewer Chinese goods than it did a year ago, which has canceled out the higher tariffs on a larger share of Chinese goods.

但今年每月从关税得到的收入并没有增加。这是因为与一年前相比,美国进口的中国商品减少了,抵消了对更大比例的中国商品征收的更高关税。

That decline appears to be the product of an overall slowdown in trade — which has contributed to weakened exports for American manufacturers — and the shift in supply chains to other countries. Imported goods from Vietnam have risen more than 30 percent this year from a year ago, Commerce Department data show.

这种下降似乎是贸易整体放缓——这也导致了美国制造商出口下降——以及供应链向其他国家转移的结果。美国商务部的数据显示,今年从越南进口的商品比去年同期增长了30%以上。

Tariff revenue would likely surge if Mr. Trump followed through on his threat to impose tariffs on nearly all Chinese goods.

如果特朗普兑现对几乎所有中国商品征收关税的威胁,关税收入可能会大幅增加。

The administration has tried to put the levers of the government to work to shelter and support American businesses. On Monday, Mr. Trump signed an executive order requiring that 95 percent of the steel and iron that goes into projects funded by federal contracts eventually be American made, up from 50 percent.

特朗普政府一直试图利用政府杠杆为美国企业提供庇护和支持。周一,特朗普签署了一项行政命令,要求联邦合同资助的项目中最终由美国制造的钢铁比例从目前的50%提高到95%。

The order is the latest in a series of proclamations that the president has made to encourage more purchases of American goods. An order in January encouraged companies to use American iron, steel, aluminum, cement and other products to the extent practical, but did not set any binding target.

这是总统为鼓励更多购买美国商品而发布的一系列命令中的最新一项。今年1月的一项命令鼓励企业尽量使用美国的钢铝和水泥等产品,但没有设定任何有约束力的目标。

John Ferriola, the chief executive of Nucor, a steel company in North Carolina, applauded the move. “We believe it’s good for our country, and it’s certainly good for the industry, I can’t deny that,” he said.

北卡罗来纳州纽克尔钢铁公司(Nucor)的首席执行官约翰·费里奥拉(John Ferriola)对此举表示欢迎。“我们相信这对我们的国家有好处,当然对这个行业也有好处,我不能否认这一点,”他说。


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