纽约时报 | 中美恢复贸易谈判,达成协议尚无时间表

WASHINGTON — A day after agreeing to resume trade talks with China, President Trump and his top advisers said no timeline existed for reaching a deal and suggested that the two sides remained as far apart as they were when talks broke up in May.

WASHINGTON — A day after agreeing to resume trade talks with China, President Trump and his top advisers said no timeline existed for reaching a deal and suggested that the two sides remained as far apart as they were when talks broke up in May.


The comments came as the administration continued to ease restrictions on China, removing eight companies from the Commerce Department’s blacklist and taking steps to allow Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications giant, to purchase American technology. Those steps, while welcomed by American businesses, fueled concerns among some lawmakers that Mr. Trump was giving away too much in return for vague promises from President Xi Jinping of China to buy more American goods.


“We’re moving along toward a reciprocal but a good trade deal, a fair trade deal,” Mr. Trump said of China during remarks in Seoul, South Korea, on Sunday. “And we’ll see where that goes, but we had a very, very good feelings with President Xi and myself.”


The truce reached at the Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Japan, over the weekend will forestall another round of punishing tariffs Mr. Trump had threatened to impose on nearly all Chinese imports. But it did little to resolve the Trump administration’s primary concerns, including its insistence that China agree to codify intellectual property protections and other changes in Chinese law.


The ability to resolve those concerns, including those that led to the breakdown in talks, is only expected to get harder on both sides of the Pacific, as Mr. Trump heads into a re-election campaign and Mr. Xi faces pressure to reinvigorate China’s slowing economy. That political calculus seems to have pushed both leaders to agree to a truce that could perpetuate the trade dispute but prevent an escalation that could destabilize the world’s two largest economies.


Larry Kudlow, the director of the White House National Economic Council, said that no timetable existed for completing negotiations but that the United States was hoping to capitalize on the progress made during talks that broke down in May, which he said had gotten the two countries 90 percent of the way to a deal.

白宫国家经济委员会主任拉里·库德洛(Larry Kudlow)称,尚无完成谈判的时间表,但美国希望能够利用5月谈判破裂前所取得的进展,他表示两国当时已经完成了协议的90%。

“That 90 percent number is fair, although the last 10 percent could be the toughest,” Mr. Kudlow said on “Fox News Sunday.” “The rest of it is going to go on for quite some time frankly.”

“90%的数字相当大了,尽管最后的10%可能最艰难,”库德洛在《福克斯周日新闻》(Fox News Sunday)节目上说。“坦白讲,剩余的部分会持续相当长一段时间。”

Mr. Trump faces a crosscurrent of pressures at home as his re-election bid shifts into high gear, including signs of a slowing economy. The president, who has staked his re-election on strong economic growth, faces risks from a trade war that has begun to hurt farmers, manufacturers and other businesses with exposure to China.


Yet the president, who has singled China out as an “economic enemy,” is wary of coming away with nothing after two years of bruising negotiations, allowing Democrats to argue that his strategy of using tariffs as pressure was a failure.


Republicans are also uncomfortable with the trade war, which has hurt businesses in their home states, making them politically vulnerable. But they are also worried that Mr. Trump will agree to a weak deal and that he bargained away too much when he agreed to let American companies sell technology and parts to the Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei less than two months after the Commerce Department labeled it a national security threat.


The administration had essentially blacklisted Huawei over concerns that it posed a national security threat and that its efforts to dominate the next generation of wireless technology, known as 5G, would put America at a disadvantage. Top officials, from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Vice President Mike Pence, have publicly warned that Huawei poses a security threat and urged other nations not to use its telecom equipment.

本届政府此前已基本上把华为列入了黑名单,担心它构成国家安全威胁,也担心它意图主宰被称为5G的下一代无线技术,使美国处于不利地位。从国务卿迈克·庞皮欧(Mike Pompeo)到副总统迈克·彭斯(Mike Pence)的高层官员都曾公开警告,华为构成安全威胁,并敦促其他国家不要使用它的电信设备。

The United States also removed eight Chinese companies from its entity list last week, including Xiamen Sanan Optoelectronics and Hubei Flying Optical. The technology companies were recently added to the Commerce Department’s red-flag list of “unverified” businesses that American companies should treat with caution.


While it remains unclear exactly what type of technology Huawei will now be allowed to buy from American companies, the fact that the president appeared to be using the telecom giant as a pawn in broader trade negotiations drew swift condemnation from some of his biggest allies in Congress.


[Read about how Huawei loomed large over trade talks.][Read about how Huawei loomed large over trade talks.]


Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, said on Twitter that relaxing the restrictions on Huawei would “destroy the credibility of his administrations warnings about the threat posed by the company” and that such warnings would no longer be taken seriously.

佛罗里达州共和党参议员马尔科·卢比奥(Marco Rubio)在Twitter上表示,放松对华为的限制,将“破坏他领导的政府对该公司威胁警告的可信度”,而且这种警告将不会再受到重视。

On Sunday, Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, said that fully reopening America’s doors to Huawei was a bad idea.

周日,南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)表示,美国全面对华为重开大门不是一个好主意。

“I don’t know what he agreed to regarding exceptions to the ban,” Mr. Graham said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “If they’re minor exceptions, that’s O.K., but if we’re selling Huawei major technology, that would be a mistake.”

“我不知道他在禁令的例外方面同意了什么,”格雷厄姆在哥伦比亚广播公司的《面对全国》(Face the Nation)节目中说。“如果只是小的例外,那也没关系,但如果我们向华为出售重要技术,那将是一个错误。”

Mr. Kudlow tried to assuage those concerns on Sunday, telling “Fox News Sunday” that this was not “general amnesty” for Huawei, and that companies would be permitted to conduct business only if there were no national security risks.

周日,库德洛试图缓解这些担忧,他在《福克斯周日新闻》(Fox News Sunday)节目中表示,这不是对华为的“大赦”,只有在不存在国家安全风险的情况下,公司才会被允许同华为开展业务。

He added that while Trump had made significant concessions to China to restart negotiations, Beijing was expected to reciprocate by making “large-scale purchases” of American agricultural products while negotiations continued.


Stock markets around the world were expected to open higher on Monday as a result of the thawing relations. Business groups praised Mr. Trump for backing away from his threat to impose tariffs on an additional $300 billion worth of products from China.


“We are encouraged the talks are restarting and additional tariffs are on hold, and we look forward to getting more detail on the president’s remarks on Huawei,” said John Neuffer, the president of the Semiconductor Industry Association.

“谈判正在重启,额外关税正在暂停,这令我们感到鼓舞,关于总统就华为的言论,我们期待获得更多细节,”半导体行业协会主席约翰·诺伊弗(John Neuffer)表示。

But the administration’s tariffs on $250 billion worth of imports remain, along with China’s retaliatory tariffs, and uncertainty is growing about whether the trade war will ever fully end. A senior Trump administration official said before the G20 summit that optimism would be tempered after China suddenly backed away from commitments in May. With no timelines for negotiations and only vague promises about Chinese purchases of American agricultural products, the relief that no additional tariffs are imminent could be short-lived.


“It’s a good thing that tariffs have been postponed, but we really need to resolve these structural issues and resolve the tariffs,” said Craig Allen, the president of the U.S.-China Business Council. “The short-term costs we’re paying here are being borne by American companies. The long-term beneficiaries will be the Europeans and the Japanese.”

“推迟关税是件好事,但我们确实需要解决这些结构性问题,解决关税问题,”美中贸易全国委员会(US-China Business Council)主席克雷格·艾伦(Craig Allen)说。“我们现在付出的短期成本都由美国公司承担。长期的受益者将是欧洲和日本。”

China faces problems that have made the protracted dispute even more challenging.


China’s debt-laden economy is slowing — and would slow even more if the Chinese government had not encouraged local governments to go on a borrowing binge this year. Growth in industrial production has slackened. Only stringent, police-enforced controls on international movements of money prevent many Chinese from trying to send their savings out of the country to seemingly safer destinations overseas with greater rule of law.


Against that backdrop, Chinese experts were divided this weekend about the outcome of the trade talks between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi.


Some noted that China had achieved three key goals. It avoided the additional tariffs Mr. Trump had threatened. It gained at least some weakening of the sanctions on Huawei. And it won the resumption of trade talks without having to accept the draft text that had been negotiated by the end of April, which China’s leadership rejected mainly because it required broad changes in the nation’s laws.


“This is a major win for Xi Jinping — it seems like President Trump is willing to make concessions on almost all fronts,” said Bo Zhiyue, the deputy dean of the New Era Development Research Institute at Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University in Suzhou, China.


But other features of the agreement provoked grumbles. The truce allows the United States to continue collecting 25 percent tariffs on nearly half its imports from China. And, at least according to Mr. Trump, China agreed to resume buying American farm goods after intermittently halting purchases over the past year to protest Mr. Trump’s tariffs.


Hu Xijin, the outspoken editor of the nationalistic Global Times news outlet, groused on Twitter that the United States was only giving up some restrictions on Huawei that it imposed a month and a half ago. He noted that another concession by Mr. Trump consisted of not imposing further tariffs that he had started threatening only in early May.


“Some Americans still unsatisfied?” he tweeted.


An underlying issue for China is that it is largely dependent on the United States to buy its goods.


Few markets other than the United States appear ready or willing to accept China’s surplus in manufactured goods. The European economy is weak. Many developing countries are deep in debt — partly because of Chinese lending in connection with Mr. Xi’s global infrastructure program, the Belt and Road Initiative — and reluctant or unable to borrow more money.


For those reasons, many of the most vocal China hawks in the United States believe that China has little choice but to strike a deal with the United States and that Mr. Trump is wise to remain patient.


“I think he’s going out of his way to show the American people, capital markets, corporate America and the global corporate community that he’s gone out of his way to get some kind of accommodation out of China,” said Stephen K. Bannon, who is Mr. Trump’s former strategist. “This is deeper than the Cold War, and it’s not going to get done overnight.”

“我认为他是特地向美国民众、资本市场、美国和全球企业界表明,他是在特意让中国做出某种让步,”特朗普的前策略师斯蒂芬·K·班农(Stephen K. Bannon)说,“这比冷战的意义还要深远,不可能一蹴而就。”

Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》上海分社社长。
Alan Rappeport自华盛顿、Keith Bradsher自大阪报道。
Chris Cameron自华盛顿对本文有报道贡献。


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