纽约时报 | 中美恢复贸易谈判,达成协议尚无时间表

WASHINGTON — A day after agreeing to resume trade talks with China, President Trump and his top advisers said no timeline existed for reaching a deal and suggested that the two sides remained as far apart as they were when talks broke up in May.

WASHINGTON — A day after agreeing to resume trade talks with China, President Trump and his top advisers said no timeline existed for reaching a deal and suggested that the two sides remained as far apart as they were when talks broke up in May.

华盛顿——同意与中国恢复谈判一天后,特朗普总统和他的最高顾问们称,尚无达成协议的时间表,并表示双方的分歧仍和5月谈判破裂时一样大。

The comments came as the administration continued to ease restrictions on China, removing eight companies from the Commerce Department’s blacklist and taking steps to allow Huawei, the Chinese telecommunications giant, to purchase American technology. Those steps, while welcomed by American businesses, fueled concerns among some lawmakers that Mr. Trump was giving away too much in return for vague promises from President Xi Jinping of China to buy more American goods.

此番言论时值特朗普政府继续放宽对中国的限制,商务部已从黑名单上划掉了8家公司,并正在采取措施,允许中国电信巨头华为购买美国技术。这些措施虽受到了美国企业的欢迎,却在一些议员中间引发了担忧,他们担心特朗普做出了太多让步,以换取中国国家主席习近平采购更多美国商品的含糊保证。

“We’re moving along toward a reciprocal but a good trade deal, a fair trade deal,” Mr. Trump said of China during remarks in Seoul, South Korea, on Sunday. “And we’ll see where that goes, but we had a very, very good feelings with President Xi and myself.”

“我们正在迈向一个互惠但很好的贸易协议,一个公平的贸易协议,”特朗普周日在韩国首尔发表讲话谈及中国时称。“我们会看接下来发生什么,但习近平主席和我本人之间有非常、非常好的感情。”

The truce reached at the Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Japan, over the weekend will forestall another round of punishing tariffs Mr. Trump had threatened to impose on nearly all Chinese imports. But it did little to resolve the Trump administration’s primary concerns, including its insistence that China agree to codify intellectual property protections and other changes in Chinese law.

上周末在日本大阪举行的20国集团峰会上达成的休战协议,将提前叫停另一轮惩罚性关税,特朗普曾威胁要对几乎所有中国进口产品加征新一轮关税。但这几乎无助于解决特朗普政府的主要关切,包括坚持要求中国同意将知识产权保护措施写入法律,并对中国的法律进行其他修改。

The ability to resolve those concerns, including those that led to the breakdown in talks, is only expected to get harder on both sides of the Pacific, as Mr. Trump heads into a re-election campaign and Mr. Xi faces pressure to reinvigorate China’s slowing economy. That political calculus seems to have pushed both leaders to agree to a truce that could perpetuate the trade dispute but prevent an escalation that could destabilize the world’s two largest economies.

眼下特朗普步入连任竞选,习近平面临重振放缓的中国经济的压力,解决这些担忧的能力,包括那些导致谈判中断的问题,估计在太平洋两岸都会变得更加困难。这样的政治考量似乎促使双方领导人同意休战,这可能会使贸易争端延续下去,却也可以防止事态升级,破坏世界两大经济体的稳定。

Larry Kudlow, the director of the White House National Economic Council, said that no timetable existed for completing negotiations but that the United States was hoping to capitalize on the progress made during talks that broke down in May, which he said had gotten the two countries 90 percent of the way to a deal.

白宫国家经济委员会主任拉里·库德洛(Larry Kudlow)称,尚无完成谈判的时间表,但美国希望能够利用5月谈判破裂前所取得的进展,他表示两国当时已经完成了协议的90%。

“That 90 percent number is fair, although the last 10 percent could be the toughest,” Mr. Kudlow said on “Fox News Sunday.” “The rest of it is going to go on for quite some time frankly.”

“90%的数字相当大了,尽管最后的10%可能最艰难,”库德洛在《福克斯周日新闻》(Fox News Sunday)节目上说。“坦白讲,剩余的部分会持续相当长一段时间。”

Mr. Trump faces a crosscurrent of pressures at home as his re-election bid shifts into high gear, including signs of a slowing economy. The president, who has staked his re-election on strong economic growth, faces risks from a trade war that has begun to hurt farmers, manufacturers and other businesses with exposure to China.

随着连任竞选大幕全线拉开,特朗普在国内面临一系列压力,包括经济放缓的迹象。总统一直都将连任押注在经济的强势增长之上,如今他面临压力,因为贸易战已开始伤及与中国有商贸往来的农民、制造商及其他企业。

Yet the president, who has singled China out as an “economic enemy,” is wary of coming away with nothing after two years of bruising negotiations, allowing Democrats to argue that his strategy of using tariffs as pressure was a failure.

然而,这位曾点名称中国是“经济敌人”的总统也在小心提防,两年激烈的谈判交锋只落得两手空空,让民主党人声称他用关税施压的策略失败了。

Republicans are also uncomfortable with the trade war, which has hurt businesses in their home states, making them politically vulnerable. But they are also worried that Mr. Trump will agree to a weak deal and that he bargained away too much when he agreed to let American companies sell technology and parts to the Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei less than two months after the Commerce Department labeled it a national security threat.

共和党人也对贸易战感到不安,贸易战伤害了他们所在州的企业,使他们在政治上容易遭到攻击。但当特朗普同意美国公司出售技术和零部件给中国电信巨头华为时,他们也担心他会达成一份软弱的协议,担心他做出太多让步,毕竟商务部将华为列为国家安全威胁尚不足两个月。

The administration had essentially blacklisted Huawei over concerns that it posed a national security threat and that its efforts to dominate the next generation of wireless technology, known as 5G, would put America at a disadvantage. Top officials, from Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Vice President Mike Pence, have publicly warned that Huawei poses a security threat and urged other nations not to use its telecom equipment.

本届政府此前已基本上把华为列入了黑名单,担心它构成国家安全威胁,也担心它意图主宰被称为5G的下一代无线技术,使美国处于不利地位。从国务卿迈克·庞皮欧(Mike Pompeo)到副总统迈克·彭斯(Mike Pence)的高层官员都曾公开警告,华为构成安全威胁,并敦促其他国家不要使用它的电信设备。

The United States also removed eight Chinese companies from its entity list last week, including Xiamen Sanan Optoelectronics and Hubei Flying Optical. The technology companies were recently added to the Commerce Department’s red-flag list of “unverified” businesses that American companies should treat with caution.

上周,美国还将八家中国公司从实体企业名单中移除,其中包括厦门三安光电和湖北飞菱光纤。这些科技公司最近被列入了商务部“未经核实”危险企业名单,提醒美国公司在做生意时应该谨慎。

While it remains unclear exactly what type of technology Huawei will now be allowed to buy from American companies, the fact that the president appeared to be using the telecom giant as a pawn in broader trade negotiations drew swift condemnation from some of his biggest allies in Congress.

尽管目前还不清楚华为将被允许从美国公司购买何种技术,但总统似乎在更广泛的贸易谈判中把这家电信巨头当作筹码,这立即招致了他在国会一些最大盟友的谴责。

[Read about how Huawei loomed large over trade talks.][Read about how Huawei loomed large over trade talks.]

[阅读有关华为如何在贸易谈判中占据重要位置的文章。]

Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, said on Twitter that relaxing the restrictions on Huawei would “destroy the credibility of his administrations warnings about the threat posed by the company” and that such warnings would no longer be taken seriously.

佛罗里达州共和党参议员马尔科·卢比奥(Marco Rubio)在Twitter上表示,放松对华为的限制,将“破坏他领导的政府对该公司威胁警告的可信度”,而且这种警告将不会再受到重视。

On Sunday, Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, said that fully reopening America’s doors to Huawei was a bad idea.

周日,南卡罗来纳州共和党参议员林赛·格雷厄姆(Lindsey Graham)表示,美国全面对华为重开大门不是一个好主意。

“I don’t know what he agreed to regarding exceptions to the ban,” Mr. Graham said on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “If they’re minor exceptions, that’s O.K., but if we’re selling Huawei major technology, that would be a mistake.”

“我不知道他在禁令的例外方面同意了什么,”格雷厄姆在哥伦比亚广播公司的《面对全国》(Face the Nation)节目中说。“如果只是小的例外,那也没关系,但如果我们向华为出售重要技术,那将是一个错误。”

Mr. Kudlow tried to assuage those concerns on Sunday, telling “Fox News Sunday” that this was not “general amnesty” for Huawei, and that companies would be permitted to conduct business only if there were no national security risks.

周日,库德洛试图缓解这些担忧,他在《福克斯周日新闻》(Fox News Sunday)节目中表示,这不是对华为的“大赦”,只有在不存在国家安全风险的情况下,公司才会被允许同华为开展业务。

He added that while Trump had made significant concessions to China to restart negotiations, Beijing was expected to reciprocate by making “large-scale purchases” of American agricultural products while negotiations continued.

他补充说,尽管特朗普在重启谈判方面向中国做出了重大让步,但预计北京方面将在谈判继续的同时,“大规模购买”美国农产品作为回报。

Stock markets around the world were expected to open higher on Monday as a result of the thawing relations. Business groups praised Mr. Trump for backing away from his threat to impose tariffs on an additional $300 billion worth of products from China.

由于两国关系解冻,预计全球股市周一将开盘走高。商业团体称赞特朗普放弃对中国另外3000亿美元产品征收关税的威胁。

“We are encouraged the talks are restarting and additional tariffs are on hold, and we look forward to getting more detail on the president’s remarks on Huawei,” said John Neuffer, the president of the Semiconductor Industry Association.

“谈判正在重启,额外关税正在暂停,这令我们感到鼓舞,关于总统就华为的言论,我们期待获得更多细节,”半导体行业协会主席约翰·诺伊弗(John Neuffer)表示。

But the administration’s tariffs on $250 billion worth of imports remain, along with China’s retaliatory tariffs, and uncertainty is growing about whether the trade war will ever fully end. A senior Trump administration official said before the G20 summit that optimism would be tempered after China suddenly backed away from commitments in May. With no timelines for negotiations and only vague promises about Chinese purchases of American agricultural products, the relief that no additional tariffs are imminent could be short-lived.

但是,美国政府对价值2500亿美元的进口商品征收的关税,以及中国的报复性关税仍然存在,贸易战是否会彻底结束的不确定性正在增加。特朗普政府的一名高级官员在G20峰会之前表示,在中国5月份突然放弃承诺之后,乐观情绪应该会有所下降。由于没有谈判的时间表,加之中国购买美国农产品只有模糊的承诺,不会马上加征关税带来的宽慰可能只是短暂的。

“It’s a good thing that tariffs have been postponed, but we really need to resolve these structural issues and resolve the tariffs,” said Craig Allen, the president of the U.S.-China Business Council. “The short-term costs we’re paying here are being borne by American companies. The long-term beneficiaries will be the Europeans and the Japanese.”

“推迟关税是件好事,但我们确实需要解决这些结构性问题,解决关税问题,”美中贸易全国委员会(US-China Business Council)主席克雷格·艾伦(Craig Allen)说。“我们现在付出的短期成本都由美国公司承担。长期的受益者将是欧洲和日本。”

China faces problems that have made the protracted dispute even more challenging.

中国面临的问题使这场旷日持久的争端更具挑战性。

China’s debt-laden economy is slowing — and would slow even more if the Chinese government had not encouraged local governments to go on a borrowing binge this year. Growth in industrial production has slackened. Only stringent, police-enforced controls on international movements of money prevent many Chinese from trying to send their savings out of the country to seemingly safer destinations overseas with greater rule of law.

中国负债累累的经济正在放缓——要不是中国政府今年鼓励地方政府大举借债,中国的经济增速放缓幅度还要大。工业生产增长放缓。还有靠着对国际资金流动实行严格的、由警察执行的控制,才得以阻止许多中国人把存款转移到那些看起来更安全、法治程度更高的海外地点。

Against that backdrop, Chinese experts were divided this weekend about the outcome of the trade talks between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi.

在这样的背景下,中国专家在上周末就特朗普和习近平贸易谈判的结果产生了分歧。

Some noted that China had achieved three key goals. It avoided the additional tariffs Mr. Trump had threatened. It gained at least some weakening of the sanctions on Huawei. And it won the resumption of trade talks without having to accept the draft text that had been negotiated by the end of April, which China’s leadership rejected mainly because it required broad changes in the nation’s laws.

有人指出,中国已经达成了三个关键目标。避免了特朗普威胁加征的额外关税。至少在一定程度上减轻了对华为的制裁。而且,在没有接受4月底谈判达成的草案的情况下,赢得了贸易谈判的重启。中国领导人否决那份草案的主要原因是,它要求对中国的法律进行广泛修改。

“This is a major win for Xi Jinping — it seems like President Trump is willing to make concessions on almost all fronts,” said Bo Zhiyue, the deputy dean of the New Era Development Research Institute at Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University in Suzhou, China.

“这对习近平来说是一个重大胜利——似乎特朗普总统愿意在几乎所有方面做出让步,”中国苏州西交利物浦大学新时代发展研究院副院长薄智跃说。

But other features of the agreement provoked grumbles. The truce allows the United States to continue collecting 25 percent tariffs on nearly half its imports from China. And, at least according to Mr. Trump, China agreed to resume buying American farm goods after intermittently halting purchases over the past year to protest Mr. Trump’s tariffs.

但该协议的其他方面引发了不满。停火协议允许美国继续对从中国进口的近一半商品征收25%的关税。而且,至少据特朗普的说法,中国同意恢复购买美国的农产品,在过去一年里,它断断续续地停止购买美国农产品,以抗议特朗普的关税。

Hu Xijin, the outspoken editor of the nationalistic Global Times news outlet, groused on Twitter that the United States was only giving up some restrictions on Huawei that it imposed a month and a half ago. He noted that another concession by Mr. Trump consisted of not imposing further tariffs that he had started threatening only in early May.

言论向来直接的民族主义报纸《环球时报》主编胡锡进在Twitter上抱怨,美国只是放弃了一个半月前对华为施加的部分限制措施。他指出,特朗普做出的另一个让步是,不再征收他在5月初才开始威胁要征收的进一步关税。

“Some Americans still unsatisfied?” he tweeted.

“有些美国人还不满意吗?”他在推文中写道。

An underlying issue for China is that it is largely dependent on the United States to buy its goods.

中国面临的一个根本问题是,它非常依赖美国购买其商品。

Few markets other than the United States appear ready or willing to accept China’s surplus in manufactured goods. The European economy is weak. Many developing countries are deep in debt — partly because of Chinese lending in connection with Mr. Xi’s global infrastructure program, the Belt and Road Initiative — and reluctant or unable to borrow more money.

除了美国以外,似乎很少有市场做好准备或愿意接受中国在制成品方面的顺差。欧洲经济疲软。许多发展中国家负债累累——有些是因为中国提供的、与习近平的全球基础设施项目“一带一路”有关的借款——不愿或无力借更多的钱。

For those reasons, many of the most vocal China hawks in the United States believe that China has little choice but to strike a deal with the United States and that Mr. Trump is wise to remain patient.

出于这些原因,美国许多最直言不讳的对华鹰派人士认为,中国别无选择,只能与美国达成协议,特朗普沉住气才是明智之举。

“I think he’s going out of his way to show the American people, capital markets, corporate America and the global corporate community that he’s gone out of his way to get some kind of accommodation out of China,” said Stephen K. Bannon, who is Mr. Trump’s former strategist. “This is deeper than the Cold War, and it’s not going to get done overnight.”

“我认为他是特地向美国民众、资本市场、美国和全球企业界表明,他是在特意让中国做出某种让步,”特朗普的前策略师斯蒂芬·K·班农(Stephen K. Bannon)说,“这比冷战的意义还要深远,不可能一蹴而就。”

Keith Bradsher是《纽约时报》上海分社社长。
Alan Rappeport自华盛顿、Keith Bradsher自大阪报道。
Chris Cameron自华盛顿对本文有报道贡献。
翻译:纽约时报中文网
点击查看本文英文版。

 


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