纽约时报 | 中美贸易战休战意味着什么?

KEITH BRADSHER2019-07-01 10:50:23 特朗普总统和中国国家主席习近平周六在日本大 […]

KEITH BRADSHER2019-07-01 10:50:23

特朗普总统和中国国家主席习近平周六在日本大阪会晤。

OSAKA, Japan — The spin from President Trump and China’s propaganda machines on Saturday portrayed a truce in a trade war that has shaken economies and markets around the world. Tariffs won’t rise further, at least not yet. And the United States will loosen its potentially devastating punishments against Huawei, China’s most successful multinational company.

日本大阪——周六,根据特朗普总统和中国宣传机器的说辞,一场已经动摇了全球经济和市场的贸易战进入休战状态。关税不会进一步提高,至少目前不会。美国还将放松对中国最成功的跨国企业华为可能带来极大破坏性的惩罚。

Yet the outlines of the tentative peace accord President Trump reached on Saturday with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, could further cement a broad reshuffling of the global economic order that undermines China’s decades-long role as the world’s factory floor.

然而,特朗普总统周六与中国国家主席习近平达成的初步和平协议的梗概,可能会进一步巩固全球经济秩序的广泛重组,削弱中国数十年来作为世界工厂的地位。

The details of the discussions between Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Osaka, Japan, still are not clear. The two sides have agreed to resume talks, but the ultimate results are not guaranteed. Their differences could still derail a fragile peace in an economic conflict that has thrown a shadow over the outlook for global growth.

特朗普与习近平借日本大阪20国集团峰会之机所讨论的细节目前还不清楚。双方已同意恢复谈判,但不保证有最终结果。双方的分歧仍可能扰乱这场经济冲突目前出现的脆弱和平,中美贸易战已给全球增长前景蒙上阴影。

Even a fragile truce could have lingering implications. The United States would keep in place broad tariffs on Chinese goods for months or perhaps years to come. Global companies would almost certainly respond by continuing to shift at least the final stages of their supply chains out of China.

即使这次不牢固的休战也会有迟迟不去的影响。美国将在未来几个月、或许是未来几年继续对中国商品征收广泛的关税。几乎可以肯定的是,全球企业将继续把其供应链——至少最后阶段——转移出中国。

“As long as the threat is out there, there are risks in depending on these long supply chains,” said Jacques deLisle, director of the Center for the Study of Contemporary China at the University of Pennsylvania. “Businesses don’t like uncertainty, and this prolongs the uncertainty.”

“只要威胁存在,就有依赖这些长供应链的风险,”宾夕法尼亚大学(University of Pennsylvania)当代中国研究中心(Center for the Study of Contemporary China)主任戴杰(Jacques deLisle)说。“企业不喜欢不确定性,目前的做法延长了不确定性。”

In that regard, the results of the Osaka talks are similar to those when Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi met in Buenos Aires on Dec. 1, resulting in a truce that left in place higher American tariffs on Chinese-made goods. That truce lasted until May, when the Trump administration accused China of backtracking on a partially completed agreement that would have replaced tariffs with broad structural changes in the Chinese economy.

在这点上,大阪会晤的结果类似于去年12月1日特朗普和习近平在布宜诺斯艾利斯见面后宣布的休战。那次休战保留了美国对中国制造的产品加征的关税,休战一直持续到今年5月,直到特朗普政府指责中国在一项部分完成的协议上出尔反尔。按照该协议,中国本会对经济进行广泛的结构性改革,以换取美国取消关税。

Leaving tariffs in place for the indefinite future has long been seen as the second-best solution by both sides. The Americans want fundamental economic policy changes in China, where the government heavily subsidizes local rivals to American companies.

让关税无限期地保留下去,长期以来一直被双方视为是次于最好的解决方案。美国希望中国进行根本性的经济政策改革,因为中国政府大量补贴美国公司的本土竞争对手。

Beijing officials want the tariffs dropped entirely. But they refuse to overhaul an economic model based on industrial subsidies and state-owned enterprises that they see as successful in lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty over the past four decades.

北京的官员希望彻底取消关税。但他们拒绝彻底改革以工业补贴和国有企业为基础的经济模式。他们认为,这种模式在过去40年里成功地帮助数亿人摆脱了贫困。

For China, the Osaka talks represent a short-term success. Mr. Trump postponed new tariffs on roughly $300 billion a year in Chinese goods that he had threatened to impose at some unspecified date if Beijing did not come back to the negotiating table. He also said he would weaken limits his administration had imposed on the American technology that Huawei could use, without offering specifics. Those limits cut off the Chinese telecom equipment giant from the semiconductors and other technologies it needs, a shopping list that the company has said totals $11 billion annually.

对中国来说,大阪会晤代表着一次短期成功。特朗普推迟了对每年约3000亿美元的中国商品征收新关税的计划。他曾威胁,如果北京不回到谈判桌,他将在某个不确定的日期对中国商品征收新关税。他还表示,会减弱他的政府对华为使用美国技术的限制,但没有提供具体细节。这些限制切断了这家中国电信设备巨头所需的半导体和其他技术的供应。华为曾表示,采购这些东西每年花的钱总计为110亿美元。

Perhaps most important, China has persuaded the United States to return to the bargaining table without agreeing to any of the legislative changes that the Trump administration saw as essential, but which Beijing regarded as an affront.

或许最重要的是,中国虽然没有同意进行特朗普政府认为至关重要的立法改变,却说服了美国重返谈判桌。北京认为按照美国的要求把改变写进立法是一种侮辱。

“China will not concede its sovereignty and show weakness,” said Zhu Ning, a prominent economics professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

“中国不会放弃主权,也不会示弱,”清华大学著名经济学教授朱宁说。

But an accord does little to reduce the trade barriers Mr. Trump has already erected. Last summer he put 25 percent tariffs on $50 billion a year in Chinese imports in crucial industries like car-making and the manufacturing of parts for nuclear reactors. Then he put 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion worth of a broader array of Chinese imports. In May, he raised tariffs on that latter set of goods to 25 percent.

但休战对减少特朗普已经设置的贸易壁垒几乎毫无帮助。他先是在去年夏天对每年从中国进口的汽车制造和核反应堆零部件等关键行业的价值500亿美元的产品加征了25%的关税。然后,他又对价值2000亿美元的中国进口商品加征了10%的关税。今年5月,他把对后者加征的关税提高到了25%。

中国电信设备巨头华为在上海的广告。

In response, an array of companies, from shoemakers to electronics manufacturers, are moving their supply chains out of China. Many companies have been shifting that final assembly to Vietnam, producing a surge in American imports from Vietnam this year even as American imports from China have begun to falter.

作为回应,从制鞋企业到电子产品制造商等一系列企业正在将它们的供应链迁出中国。许多公司已将最后的组装转移到越南,导致今年美国从越南的进口激增,而与此同时,美国从中国的进口已开始减弱。

“What this has shown is there is massive uncertainty, and we’re not going to go back to the way things were,” said Wendy Cutler, a former American trade official who is now a vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute.

“这已经表明存在着巨大的不确定性,我们不会回到以前做事的方式了,”曾担任美国贸易官员、现任亚洲协会政策研究院(Asia Society Policy Institute)副总裁的温迪·卡特勒(Wendy Cutler)说。

This shift will not happen overnight. China remains a manufacturing colossus with vast supply chains and a skilled labor force. Even those companies that continue to move final production out of China are continuing to buy Chinese-made components, particularly in electronics, a sector that China dominates. Despite the worsening trade tensions of recent weeks, Apple is planning to move production of a line of powerful personal computers to China from the United States.

这种转变不会在一夜之间发生。中国仍然是一个制造业巨人,拥有庞大的供应链和熟练的劳动力。即使那些继续将最后的生产迁出中国的公司,也在继续购买中国制造的零部件,尤其是在中国占主导地位的电子产品领域。尽管贸易紧张局势在最近几周不断恶化,但苹果(Apple)正在计划将一系列功能强大的个人电脑的生产从美国转移到中国去。

“Uprooting an entire supply chain is a nightmare task,” said Jon Cowley, an attorney in the Hong Kong office of Baker McKenzie, a global law firm, who advises corporate clients on tariffs and supply chains. “It takes years, if not decades.”

全球律所贝克·麦坚时(Baker & McKenzie)为企业客户提供关税和供应链方面的咨询,其香港办事处的律师乔恩·考利(Jon Cowley)说,“将整条供应链连根拔起是项噩梦般的任务。即使不需要几十年,也要花上好几年时间。”

President Trump warned this past week that he was concerned about the influx of goods from Vietnam. The surge could invite scrutiny from the Trump administration if it believes that companies are pretending to make products outside China but are simply clipping together Chinese-made parts.

特朗普总统曾在过去的一周警告,他对大量商品从越南涌入感到担忧。如果政府认为企业是假装在中国境外生产,而实际上只是在中国境外组装中国制造的零部件的话,这种激增可能会招致特朗普政府的审查。

Still, China has few options to stop those shifts. Trade between the two countries is so lopsided that China has many fewer American imports to tax. It could slam American companies that sell vast amounts of products in China, like Apple or General Motors, but pinching those companies could hurt the Chinese workers who make those products.

不过,中国几乎没有办法阻止这些转移。中美两国之间的贸易如此不平衡,以至于中国能加征关税的美国进口商品要少得多。中国可以打击在其国内大量销售产品的美国公司,比如苹果或通用汽车(General Motors)等,但打击这些公司可能会伤害生产这些产品的中国工人。

Its strategy so far has been to target agricultural goods from states that Mr. Trump would need to win if he hopes to be re-elected in 2020. The strategy has worked. American farmers have suffered from a loss of sales to China and have been urging the White House to resolve the trade war. To help cushion the blow, Mr. Trump rolled out two rounds of financial support to help subsidize the farmers. But China’s dangling of agricultural purchases in front of Mr. Trump appeared to once again persuade the president to back off from his bigger threat, saying farmers “are going to be a tremendous beneficiary.”

中国的战略到目前为止一直是针对农产品,如果特朗普希望在2020年再次当选总统的话,他需要在这些生产农产品的州获胜。这个战略已经奏效。美国农民已在对华出口上遭受了损失,他们一直在敦促白宫解决贸易战的问题。为了缓解冲击,特朗普已推出了两轮用于帮助补贴农民的财政支持。但中国在特朗普面前悬挂购买农产品的胡萝卜,似乎再次说服了总统放弃他更大的威胁,称这将让农民“成为巨大的受益者”。

On Saturday, Mr. Trump said China had agreed to resume purchasing some of the farm goods and other products that it has not been buying lately in retaliation for the American tariffs. “China is going to be buying a tremendous amount of food and agricultural product and they’re going to start that very soon, almost immediately,” Mr. Trump said in remarks in Osaka. “We’re going to give them lists of things we would like them to buy.”

特朗普周六说,中国已同意恢复购买一些农产品和其他产品。作为对美国关税的报复,中国最近停止了购买这些产品。“中国将购买大量的食品和农产品,他们很快就会开始购买,几乎是立即购买,”特朗普在大阪演讲时说。“我们会给他们列出我们想让他们购买的东西。”

Mr. Trump’s position could change if the American economy slows or if financial markets take a hit. While the trade war may be popular among Mr. Trump’s base and in some parts of manufacturing swing states, and resumed farm purchases could improve its image, it is disliked by the electorate at large.

如果美国经济放缓或金融市场受到冲击的话,特朗普的立场可能会改变。虽然贸易战可能在特朗普的大本营,以及在以制造业为主的摇摆州的部分地区受欢迎,而且,中国恢复农业采购可能会改善贸易战的形象,但对选民总体来说,贸易战不受欢迎。

Even then, leaders from both major American parties have indicated that the United States could continue to take a tough line on China no matter who is in the White House. The attitudes toward Huawei, in particular, show an appetite on both sides of the aisle for taking a tough line. Mr. Trump on Saturday said he would allow American companies greater leeway in selling their products to the Chinese telecom giant. His comments provided little clarity on which companies might be able to resume sales. The technology industry has argued that it should be able to sell products to Huawei that do not pose a threat to national security.

尽管如此,美国两大政党的领导人都表示,无论谁入主白宫,美国都可能继续对中国采取强硬立场。尤其是对华为的态度显示出两党都有采取强硬立场的意愿。特朗普周六说,在向这家中国电信设备巨头销售产品上,他会允许美国公司有更大的回旋余地。他的这番话并没有为哪些公司可能恢复销售提供多少明确的信息。科技行业提出理由说,应该允许它们向华为销售不对国家安全构成威胁的产品。

Those comments were already drawing skepticism on Saturday. In a statement, Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader in the Senate, called Huawei “one of few potent levers we have to make China play fair on trade.

特朗普的这些言论已在周六引发了质疑。参议院民主党领袖、纽约州参议员查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer)在一份声明中把华为称作是“我们拥有的让中国在贸易上采用公平做法的少数有力杠杆之一”。

“If President Trump backs off, as it appears he is doing, it will dramatically undercut our ability to change China’s unfair trade practices,” he said.

“如果特朗普总统退却,就像他现在正在做的,那将大大削弱我们改变中国不公平贸易做法的能力,”他说。

American officials have portrayed Huawei to United States allies as a potential security threat, in an effort to get them to turn elsewhere for advanced telecommunications equipment. Huawei has denied that it represents a security threat to any company.

美国官员曾对美国盟友把华为描述为一个潜在的安全威胁,目的是让他们转向别处去购买先进电信设备。华为否认自己对任何公司构成安全威胁。

“Even if they try to thread the needle here on how they implement whatever Trump has decided, his message alone seriously undercuts the efforts put in to try and persuade our allies to join us,” said Laura Rosenberger, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, a think tank.

“即使他们试图在如何执行特朗普已经决定的事情上尽力而为,单是他释放的这个信息本身就严重削弱了为说服盟友加入到我们的行列所做的努力,”劳拉·罗森伯格(Laura Rosenberger)说,她是德国智库马歇尔基金会(German Marshall Fund)的高级研究员。

Keith Bradsher在2002至2016年间曾担任《纽约时报》香港分社社长。他现在是上海分社社长。欢迎在Twitter上关注他 @KeithBradsher。Julian E. Barnes自布鲁塞尔、孟宝勒(Paul Mozur)自上海对本文有报道贡献。翻译:Cindy Hao点击查看本文英文版。

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