纽约时报 | 抱歉,2018年的世界只会更混乱、更疯狂

Expect 2018 to Be More Sane? Sorry, It’s Not Going to H […]

Expect 2018 to Be More Sane? Sorry, It’s Not Going to Happen

Happy new year to you and yours, of course, but I’m going to have to put a halt to the festivities and play Frowning Farhad for a minute: You’re fooling yourself if you think 2018 is going to be any different, sanity- or anxiety-wise, from the roller coaster of the year just concluded.


Sure, as in any year, a lot of good things could happen in 2018, and perhaps lots of bad things will happen, too. (How’s that for a prediction?) But there is a deeper and more unsettling certainty about the ride upon which we’ve all just embarked: A lot of probably very crazy things will happen in 2018.


Get ready for even more events that don’t follow the rational course, and narratives that appear unmoored from the laws of politics, business and science. The background sensation of uncertainty that has pervaded much of the last two years isn’t going to abate. Just the opposite ― my columnist’s Spidey sense tells me it’s only going to get worse. Strap in.


Just a few years ago, there was a dawning sense that technology would give us a peek around the corner. Thanks to reams of information ― sensors and surveillance everywhere, and computing capacity to make sense of it all ― it looked as if we were entering a “Minority Report”-type world, where much of the future could be foretold in our numbers. Google could predict flu trends, election-stats nerds could predict political outcomes, and predictive policing algorithms were going to give us a handle on crime.

仅在几年前,人们才刚刚产生一种感觉:科技会在角落里窥看我们。由于大量的信息――无处不在的传感器和监视器,以及让这一切产生意义的计算能力――我们似乎进入了一种《少数派报告》(Minority Report)式的世界,在这个世界里,我们的数据可以预言大部分的未来。谷歌能预计流感趋势,热衷选举统计的人可以预测政治选举结果,预测式的监控算法将会帮助我们解决犯罪问题。

Yet what has happened is rather quite different. Instead of revealing unseen order and predictability in the world, technology has unleashed a cascade of forces that have made the world more volatile ― and thus made the future hazier and more open to out-of-the-blue results.


Some of this isn’t news. In 2016 and 2017, the world began to appreciate how smartphones and social networks can upend what we once considered the natural order. Tech has helped undercut the power of incumbent institutions and it has created a new class of geopolitical actors whose presence and ricocheting power we’re all still getting used to: trolls, terrorists, conspiracy theorists, social-media activists, hackers and cyptocurrency bugs, among others.


These dynamics aided many of the biggest and most surprising stories in the last couple of years ― Brexit, the election of Donald Trump, the emergent resistance movement against him, the #MeToo avalanche, the decline of Uber, the rise of Bitcoin.


Yet even as a barrage of surprising stories plays out, many of us have yet to come to grips with the permanence of this chaos. People seem to have a latent, hopeful sense that things are going to calm down, that we’re on the cusp of a more normal news cycle. I suspect that’s wrong. Chaos is the new normal; the apprehension you feel every time you get a notification on your phone ― the fear that you don’t know what fresh horror it could bring ― isn’t an overreaction but an adaptation. Thanks to phones and Facebook, anything really could happen tomorrow.


“I will tell you that as someone who does this professionally, my job has become a lot harder in the last few years,” said Amy Webb, a futurist who runs the Future Today Institute, a firm that helps big companies think about the possibilities of tomorrow.

“我要告诉你,作为一名专业人士,我的工作在过去几年里变得更加困难,”经营Future Today Institute公司的未来学家艾米・韦伯(Amy Webb)说。该公司帮助大公司思考未来的各种可能性。

“There are just a lot more variables in play,” Ms. Webb said. “Think about how a single tweet from Donald Trump can have all these strange reverberations across the world. You can almost apply chaos theory to Donald Trump’s Twitter account.”


One of the touchstone ideas of chaos theory, which is the study of dynamic systems, is the “butterfly effect” ― the idea that small changes in initial conditions can lead to huge differences in outcomes, like how a butterfly flapping its wings in Peru can cause a hurricane in Houston.


Nowadays, because we’re hyperconnected, we see butterfly effects everywhere. A single confessional blog post by Susan Fowler, a former employee of the ride-hailing company Uber, led to a swirling online campaign that eventually brought down Travis Kalanick, Uber’s once indomitable chief executive ― an outcome that, as far as I can tell, not a single observer of Uber predicted would happen long before it did.

现在,由于我们被非常紧密地联系在一起,我们发现蝴蝶效应无处不在。叫车公司优步的前雇员苏珊・福勒(Susan Fowler)发布了一篇自白性质的博客,在网上引发了一场庞大的运动,最终导致优步首席执行官特拉维斯・卡兰尼克(Travis Kalanick)下台,他的地位曾是那样不可动摇。据我所知,没有一个优步的观察者能在很久之前预测到这样的结果。

But it’s not just that one-off stories cause huge cascades; it’s that in a connected world, there are now so many one-off stories capable of setting off cascades, and no one knows which ones will hit.


Note how Mr. Trump was not brought down by the series of sexual harassment claims against him during the presidential campaign ― and yet just a few months later, claims against a host of other powerful men spiraled into a culture-shaping movement that has upended many parts of the economy.


To continue the butterfly-effect analogy: “It used to be that there were a trillion butterflies each in their own weather system, but we have now connected all those butterflies into one planetary weather system ― and you never know which one is going to have some kind of autocatalytic effect, and which one isn’t,” said Alexander Rose, executive director of the Long Now Foundation, an organization that aims to promote a long-term outlook on the world.

旨在促进世界长期前景的组织Long Now Foundation的执行董事亚历山大・罗斯(Alexander Rose)也使用了蝴蝶效应的类比,他说:“过去,有一万亿只蝴蝶存在于各自的天气系统里,但现在我们把所有这些蝴蝶联系起来,放到了一个行星天气系统里――你永远不知道哪只蝴蝶会产生某种自动催化效应,而哪只又不会。”

As if all that weren’t enough, there’s another complication to fold into the chaos: Technology isn’t stopping. The pace of technological change is in many cases too fast for anyone of us to comprehend or get used to; as a result, just as the world seems to get its head around one new force unleashed by tech, another comes along to discombobulate our efforts to respond to it.


For example, in the past year and a half, social networks have tried several ways to tamp down the misinformation flowing online. Their efforts have been fitful at best, but already they risk being outdated. Soon artificial intelligence and augmented reality software will make it trivially easy to create not just text-based misinformation but entirely fake audio and video, too.


Last year, researchers at the University of Washington used A.I. to scan through footage of Barack Obama speaking, giving them a way to put just about any words into the former president’s mouth.

去年,华盛顿大学(University of Washington)的研究人员使用人工智能扫描了贝拉克・奥巴马的讲话片段,这种技术可以让这位前总统的嘴巴说出任何言论。

In the run-up to the 2018 election, Facebook, Twitter and other social networks have vowed to take on the kinds of misinformation and trolling that ran amok in 2016. But what if social media is hit with a wave of explosive, realistic-looking viral videos whose authenticity can’t be confirmed? It’s highly unlikely that the social networks, the news media or the political class will know how to respond to such a situation.


Mr. Rose pointed out that in the long span of human history, periods of turbulence aren’t unusual; technological change often prompts social and political instability and unpredictability. What is unusual now is that many of us aren’t used to this sort of chaos.


“I’m 39, about to turn 40, and people like me who came of age in America in the ’80s and ’90s, we got used to a fairly predictable world,” said Nate Silver, the founder of the data-news site FiveThirtyEight, whose uncannily accurate forecast of the 2012 presidential election while at The New York Times set off wide interest in data-based journalistic predictions.

“我39岁了,马上奔四了,像我这样在美国的八九十年代长大的人习惯于一个非常可预测的世界,”数据新闻网站FiveThirtyEight的创始人纳特・西尔弗(Nate Silver)说。他在《纽约时报》期间对2012年总统大选的惊人准确预测引发了人们对基于数据的新闻预测的广泛兴趣。

“So I do think people are now realizing the world is less predictable than we thought it was,” Mr. Silver said. “But in some ways that’s a return to normal.”


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